"stable" in the first half of the year and "changed" in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2018, the world economy accelerated and the domestic economy stabilized and created a relatively good market demand environment. China's textile and apparel export and domestic market generally achieved good growth, providing fundamental support for the textile industry to maintain a stable operation. The textile industry has intensively promoted supply-side structural reforms. The characteristics of high-quality development are more obvious. The economic indicators such as production, sales, efficiency, and investment all show structural adjustment characteristics, and the operational quality and efficiency have improved compared with the first quarter.

The industry's prosperity has risen steadily, and internal and external sales have grown steadily.

The domestic demand market grew steadily, and the growth rate of network channels increased significantly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and needles above designated size increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The retail sales of online clothing in the country increased by 24.1% year-on-year. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 3.3 percentage points. The domestic sales growth of textiles and garments was better than that of the previous year. On the one hand, it was related to China's overall macroeconomic stability and rapid growth of residents' income. On the other hand, it also reflected the remarkable achievements of the textile industry in optimizing supply structure and effectively meeting domestic demand.

The total export volume of the industry maintained a growth trend and the textile competitiveness was stable. According to Customs Express data, in the first half of the year, the total export volume of textiles and apparel (excluding Chapter 94) was US$127.52 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1% higher than the same period of the previous year. Among them, textiles showed stable international competitiveness and good export growth. Exports in the first half of the year increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The proportion of total exports increased from 42.8% in the same period of last year to 45.7. %; garment export pressure increased, export volume decreased by 2% year-on-year, 3.4 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year, and its proportion decreased from 57.2% in the same period of last year to 54.3%.

The economic benefits have gradually improved, and the quality of operation has improved steadily.

Thanks to the good support of domestic and foreign markets, the growth rate of the efficiency of the textile industry has gradually accelerated. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, textile enterprises above designated size achieved a total revenue of 2,906.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than that of the first quarter of this year; the total profit was 136.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The growth rate increased by 6.2 percentage points from the first quarter. The growth rate of chemical fiber and textile machinery industry was significantly higher than the industry average. In the first half of the year, the main business income and total profit of the chemical fiber industry increased by 16.3% and 19.3% respectively, and the textile machinery industry increased by 16% and 19.6% respectively.

The overall quality of the industry has improved. In the first half of the year, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.7%, slightly lower than 0.1 percentage points in the same period of last year, up 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter of this year; the turnover rate of finished products was 18.4 times/year, up 2.6% year-on-year; total assets The turnover rate was 1.4 times per year, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year. The ratio of three fees was 6.9%, slightly higher than 1 percentage point in the same period of last year and 0.2 percentage points lower than the first quarter of this year.

The macro fundamentals are generally normal, and uncertainties remain to be seen

Looking forward to the second half of 2018, the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad has generally continued its steady recovery. The fundamentals of stable growth of the domestic and overseas markets have not changed. The textile industry is also expected to maintain a basically stable operation in the second half of the year. On the international front, employment in developed economies has improved, approaching the level of full employment, driving consumer confidence to rise, and international market demand has maintained inertia. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank recently forecast that the global economic growth rate in 2018 will be 3.9% and 3.1%, respectively, both not lower than the growth level in 2017, and the external demand situation in the textile industry is generally stable. Domestically, in the second half of the year, China's macroeconomic operation will remain stable overall, and stable employment will provide basic support for income growth and consumption expansion; consumer confidence is at a relatively high level, which can provide a basis for predicting the steady growth of domestic demand in the second half of the year. The macro-control policy is more focused on expanding domestic demand, and domestic consumption of textiles and clothing is expected to maintain steady growth.

In the second half of the year, the complexity of the macro-environment at home and abroad has increased, and the risk factors have increased. However, overall, the textile industry will not be affected. Since the beginning of this year, Sino-US trade friction has continued to escalate, the uncertainty of the trade environment has risen, and the export pressure of the textile industry has also increased. However, the list of tax increases announced by the United States has not yet covered a large proportion of export products such as clothing and home textiles, and the tax increase has not yet entered the implementation stage. Therefore, it is expected that the textile industry will not have a major impact during the year. External risks such as the global liquidity contraction caused by the US interest rate hike still need a certain process to show the impact. The international market demand has slowed down in the short term, but the fundamentals have not changed. The external demand environment of the textile industry is still stable.